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Blackmane Capital, L.P.'s avatar

Thanks for the update Adam. I too am long $MED.

One aspect of the story I don't often hear mentioned is the state of Medifast's two largest competitors in the traditional weight loss services industry - Weight Watchers and Nutrisystem (privately owned by PE backed Wellful Inc. which also owns Jenny Craig) both of which carry substantial debt on their balance sheets.

The former is rumoured to be starting bankruptcy proceedings with the latter likely not too far off:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/weightwatchers-prepares-for-bankruptcy/ar-AA1CCldS

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investing/2024/11/08/nutrisystem-jenny-craig-owner-wellful-prepares-a-debt-overhaul/

If there is room for a traditional weight loss services company to exist alongside the GLP-1's, which I believe there is, it seems Medifast, with a debt free and cash rich balance sheet, is the most likely contender and could also pick up market share from its beleaguered competitors.

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Adam Mead's avatar

I touched on the state of competition in my original analysis. I agree, MED may be the last one standing. A big question mark is what they do with the cash once they get clarity in operations. Hopefully return it to shareholders!

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Lorenzo's avatar

Thanks for the update Adam. To give you some feedback, short notes, even if not perfect, are useful especially if they can open conversations among readers.

P.s. it would be nice to have an active group / chat, I've seen one in discord but it seemed inactive last time I checked :)

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